DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 10:58

DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/30 10:58

   Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed

   Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock market 
is working higher with the S&P up 20 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points 
lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.20 
and natural gas down 7 cents. Livestock trade is firmer with cattle leading. 
Precious metals have turned mixed with gold up 5.50.


   Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with spread action remaining 
firm as early gains ease with pre-report position-squaring. Looking to Friday, 
the average acre guess is 90.88 million acres of corn and stocks at 7.470 
billion bushels (bb) versus 89.4 million acres and 7.758 bb in stocks last 
year. Ethanol margins will need more help from unleaded to boost blender action 
with firming corn values crimping margins again despite the uptick in demand 
seasonally. The weekly ethanol report showed production slightly higher and 
stocks off ahead of Easter travel. Basis has continued to generally drift back 
higher. The daily export wire reported 178,000 metric tons (mt) of corn sold to 
China, keeping the streak going. Weekly export sales of corn were at 1.04 
million metric tons (mmt) old crop, and 21,800 mt of new crop with the trend 
edging a little lower. The second crop in Brazil is heading toward the better 
part of the growing season with trade watching forecasts into April for 
development with some concerns on the horizon as we get into April. On the May 
chart we are solidly above the 20-day moving average, which is now support at 
$6.33, and resistance is at the Upper Bollinger Band at $6.56.


   Soybean futures are narrowly mixed at midday with weaker spread action 
continuing as we work around the middle of the range with quiet product action 
so far and further position-squaring expected. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher 
and oil is 90 to 100 points lower. For Friday's report, the trade is looking 
for 88.242 million acres of soybeans and 1.742 bb of stocks versus 90.955 
million acres and 1.931 bb last year. With South American new-crop beans 
becoming available, export news has remained limited in recent days with weekly 
sales improving slightly at 384,200 mt old crop, 3,900 mt new with meal at 
377,900 old, 10,000 new and 2,000 of oil. Basis has generally remained solid in 
the short term with the market still showing a substantial inverse, albeit just 
off the highs. May chart support is now at the lower Bollinger Band at $14.23, 
which we pushed back above Monday with further support at the $14.05 fresh low 
scored Friday, while the 20-day moving average is just above the market at 
$14.84, which we tested overnight and faded from.


   Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower with Plains weather still supportive 
as we consolidate recent gains, along with sorting out the changes announced by 
grain companies in the Black Sea with early gains fading again. KC is leading 
after Chicago led Wednesday as we sit at 12-year highs on KC premium with the 
firmer action this morning. On the report, trade is looking for all wheat at 
48.852 million acres and stocks at 934 mb versus 47.351 million acres and 1.025 
bb last year. Weather will continue to support KC action with the western 
Plains to continue to struggle with moisture to the east, while early spring 
wheat progress will be limited with cold and snow delaying the start of the 
season. The dollar remains toward the lower end of the range, while Matif wheat 
is weaker and weighing on Chicago action again. Weekly export sales were a bit 
soft at 151,700 mt old, and 37,400 mt of new. Little other change is noted on 
the world scene for now as India presses into harvest and other Northern 
Hemisphere weather issues are limited with continental Europe generally in good 
shape. On the KC May Chart the 20-day moving average is support at $8.25 with 
the fresh high scored in Wednesday's trade at $8.96 becoming resistance for now.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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